>> Iran and Israel reached a cease-fire deal.

Now this comes a day after Iran launched an attack on a U.S. air base in Qatar.

A retaliation to the U.S. bombing.

Iran's nuclear sites.

But just a day into the cease-fire, the agreement has already been violated.

Here's President Donald Trump's reaction.

>> basically says that a body had been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what's up.

>> this.

>> Angry President Trump, their international relationships, of course, and a possible threat to Americans here at home still loom over situation.

Here to weigh in on those issues as well as the rise in domestic political violence in the United States is Robert Pape, a political scientist at the University of Chicago and Specialist on terrorism.

He is with us via zoom from Wuhan China.

Professor, thanks for joining us.

Glad to be here.

So you've been able to project this conflict with Iran and how it might play out.

You predicted the first missile strikes would be on the Iranian nuclear site Fordow and Natanz.

How are you feeling about this cease-fire right now?

>> I think that we have seen a high-risk mission with very little benefit and the cease-fire is an effort to try to dig us out of this hole.

The risks here are clearly evidence ones you on states, airstrikes.

This is going to provoke a hornet's nest of a conflict.

As you just heard the president say Israel and Iran been at each other for years and years and years.

And so once you start bombing, this is going to produce the Hornets nest.

This is going to produce the possibility of even further escalation.

That's all the risk.

The benefit was supposed to be knock out this program and the program was never likely to be knocked out.

This was fully predictable out.

This would be a futile effort.

And the more we were just had a classified intelligence estimate week in The New York Times.

It says nothing.

There's no evidence whatsoever.

We knocked out any nuclear material.

Any of the centrifuges.

We dug some holes and that's about right yet.

Reports are saying that that Iran's nuclear program may have only been set back a matter of months.

>> To that point, last night's guests that we had here on this program, both made the case that the attacks over the weekend, including Iran's response just yesterday were both highly choreographed.

Do you agree with that and how should the American people view that?

>> Yes, I think that what you're seeing is that.

It looks like Israel in the red states colluded parks even with Israel's first strike on the Iranian nuclear program about 2 weeks ago.

And then clearly there was collusion here or an effort by the president to use deception when there were negotiations between the EU and we are on negotiators to want another strike which I don't think had the surprise.

He was hoping for.

And what you saw, what he saw as the Israelis and the Americans don't cross Iranians twice wired to them directly to their face.

Double crossed them twice.

That was a tremendous credibility here.

What they're reading in stead, though, was really quite shrewd.

What they did is they did a limited strike, a limited strike to the American attack and they know they telegraphed that they told us in advance so we can get people protected in that base and nobody died.

This is a this is showing well, we are being quite reckless we're seeing a pro nuns who are being quite rude and we are grossly underestimating our opponents.

We've come out you think way?

But will.

Do you think to that and that Iran would trust any peace deal but has negotiated with the U.S. and Israel?

>> I don't think they'll be caught by surprise again.

So trust is not common.

International politics.

However, there is there are expectations, I would say.

And I think that the idea >> president is going to hoodwink the Iranians again, not not likely.

I think in fact, he is not likely to be able to get away with this with many other people around the I don't think the Russians are going to fall for any of tricks.

I don't think the Chinese are going to fall for tricks.

The Europeans are not going to fall for this.

Everybody would to double crosses less than 2 weeks.

This is going to go down in history.

And this is sending clear message that any words that come out of the president's mouth there?

Nobody nobody is really paying much attention to.

They have shock value.

As you just read.

He's using swear words.

But does anybody really believe that until we see the behavior that what Donald Trump says one minute is going to happen the next.

>> you think Americans are?

Should Americans be concerned about any risks of a possible attack on American soil?

>> I'm sorry to say yes, there are risks of the bigger risk.

Here is not so much a coordinated command directed attack from Iran as inspired attacks.

And we've seen with the with with American political arms.

We've inspired attacks are ready, but this is really a danger.

And those inspired attacks could be quite Tsa has got to stay on and lead those I don't want to want to start going into some areas because I don't want basically scare people.

But the bottom line is that we have seen inspired before in this country.

We just saw some New Year's you know what?

For many people died New Year's Day with that ramming attack.

need to on guard.

>> Because you also argue that we may be on the brink of an extremely violent era in American politics.

The U.S. has had a long history of assassinations and political violence.

But what makes this moment feel different?

>> This moment is different because I call this the euro violent populism and it's been going on for about 5 years.

So the summer of 2020, we had mostly peaceful protests with George Floyd, but 5% of them were riots and that involved hundreds of thousands of people.

That's small potatoes here.

Then we have January 6, which is, of course, a violent riot.

It's not just attacking the Capitol but trying to overturn to elected president of United States and the certification of Joe Biden.

Then we have a whole string of assassination attempts against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

Nancy Pelosi almost killed her husband and then to, of course, attempts against Donald Trump.

we begin this year 2025 with a whole spate of of political violence.

We have dozens of attacks against Tesla stations Governor Shapiro.

His whole family was almost burned to death in their home just minutes away from lawmakers well on and on.

Yes, exactly.

And you can see right away.

This is not normal.

You have to go back to the 1960's, which is BR most of our lifetimes to remember chaos of anything like this before.

And we're just getting started with the summer season.

We're just getting started protests were now really teetering on the brink of some quite serious violence will.

And among, you know, this growing sort of normalization of political violence in America.

You also write that the perpetrators don't necessarily fit the image.

>> Of.

>> Who we think they might be.

What are we?

Who are What are we understanding what we keep looking for the perpetrator to be a card carrying member of a party?

>> They're a Democrat.

Maybe they've thinking of how Democratic politics for for their Republican.

This is a mistake.

In fact, what we see over and over again is these are people who are essentially coming from a political side of the aisle, but rejecting normal politics.

The Minnesota shooter, that is just a classic example of what we've seen over the years.

this is someone who is clearly a cultural conservative he has lots in his background, that's culturally conservative.

But he appears to be rejecting being a member of a party.

Well, that means if he was somebody who thought parties were good white parties, they probably will go through the normal process and become a party activists.

It's not happening.

These are people who are voting with vigils.

They're upset about what's happening in the country.

They're coming at it from one side of the aisle.

They're attacking somebody on the other side of the aisle.

This is what's been going on our country for years and we've got to out of this idea that that we can go find and the party itself.

That said, we do need to look to party leaders to basically bring down the temperature because the water by on individuals are coming from side of the border.

central solutions, what can bring down the temperature?

The very important thing to do, I've been calling for this for several years.

It's starting finally to happen where political leaders start to condemn violence when it's coming from their own side of the political spectrum.

And that is starting to happen.

So in the case of the Minnesota shooter, you're saying Mike Johnson, for example, even Donald Trump issued a statement.

However, this is not enough.

This is a beginning.

It's good.

But what we need are much more prominent statements and actually joint statement.

So what would help in this very precarious summer that we're here is that President Donald Trump and Governor Gavin Newsom would get together in a joint conference in a Governor Pritzker will join us.

This would be even better because there are these are the way to bring the temperature.

>> Professor, we got about 30 seconds left your joining us today.

As we mentioned from Wuhan China, where you're speaking at a number of different universities over a couple of weeks.

How are the Chinese reacting to Donald Trump's actions in Iran?

And since his inauguration?

>> Stunned and mystified, which is why I'm here for 12 giving talk after talk after dark.

The audience after audience after audience.

They're they're asking what is going on in America.

And I'm here because I've done so much study about American political violence in my work international security and the understanding the Trump administration.

And that's why I'm here.

The world is stopped.

>> Yeah, what we appreciate you making some sense of it for us as well.

Professor